Select an alternative model from Forecast with Best ARIMA Model

Overview

When you use Forecast with Best ARIMA Model, Minitab Statistical Software produces results for the ARIMA model with the best value of an information criterion, such as the corrected Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc). Minitab lets you produce results for other models in the first 30 rows of the Model Selection table. Usually, you select an alternative model if another model has a value of the criterion close to the best, but with fewer terms in the model. A model with fewer terms is easier to interpret and can have better forecasting ability. Also consider an alternative model if the results for the optimal model show that the model does not meet the assumptions of the analysis.

For example, the following model selection table has 8 models. The ARIMA(0, 1, 2) model has the least AICc. To examine the results for another model in the table, select Select Alternative Model after the table.

Forecast with Best ARIMA Model for Sales

* WARNING * Inestimable ARIMA(p, d, q) models that do not include a constant term: (2, 1, 2) Model Selection Model (d = 1) LogLikelihood AICc AIC BIC p = 0, q = 2* -197.052 400.878 400.103 404.769 p = 1, q = 2 -196.989 403.311 401.978 408.199 p = 1, q = 0 -201.327 407.029 406.654 409.765 p = 2, q = 0 -200.239 407.251 406.477 411.143 p = 1, q = 1 -200.440 407.655 406.880 411.546 p = 2, q = 1 -201.776 412.884 411.551 417.773 p = 0, q = 1 -204.584 413.542 413.167 416.278 p = 0, q = 0 -213.614 429.350 429.229 430.784 * Best model with minimum AICc. Output for the best model follows.

Perform the analysis

Select Select Alternative Model in the output. A dialog box opens that shows up to 30 rows of the Model Selection table.

Compare the criteria

To select an alternative model, select a row in the table. Select Display Results to create the results for that model.

Tip

To compare the output of two different analyses or reports, right-click the second item in the Navigator and choose Open in Split View.