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Example of prediction with Discover Best Model (Continuous Response)

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Note

This command is available with the Predictive Analytics Module. Click here for more information about how to activate the module.

A team of researchers for a group of medical clinics has data on the results of initial examinations by doctors. At the end of the initial examinations, the doctors assign each patient a score for the severity of the illness of the patient. The researchers want to develop a short questionnaire to help prioritize the sickest patients before examination by a doctor. Through consultation with subject matter experts and initial exploration of the data, the researchers select 8 variables to use to predict the severity score.

The researcher uses the model in the results to predict illness scores for new observations.

  1. Complete Example of Discover Best Model (Continuous Response).
  2. In the Navigator, select the results for Discover Best Model (Continuous Response).
  3. Select Predict in the results.
  4. From the drop-down list, select Enter individual values.
  5. Enter the following values. This example uses 2 values for each predictor, but you can use up to 3 values.
    Number of Symptoms Now 1 10  
    High Production of Phlegm 0 1  
    Severe Shortness of Breath 0 1  
    Severe Chest Pain 0 1  
    Severe Headache 0 1  
    Severe Sleep Disturbance 0 1  
    Generally Feeling Very Bad 0 1  
    Limits on Normal Activities 0 1  
  6. Click OK.

Interpret the results

Minitab uses the multiple regression model in the results to estimate the illness scores for the set of prediction values. The researchers find that the illness score using the specified settings is approximately 3.29 for the first set and 57.6 for the second set.

Discover Best Model (Continuous Response): Illness Severity Score vs Number of Symptoms Now, High Production of Phlegm, Severe Shortness of Breath, Severe Chest Pain, Severe Headache, Severe Sleep Disturbance, Generally Feeling Very Bad, Limits on Normal Activities

Prediction for Illness Severity Score

Regression Equation

Illness Severity Score=0.344 + 2.985 Number of Symptoms Now + 0.000000 High Production of Phlegm_0 + 3.874 High Production of
Phlegm_1 + 0.000000 Severe Chest Pain_0 + 3.247 Severe Chest Pain_1 + 0.000000 Severe Headache_0
+ 4.203 Severe Headache_1 + 0.000000 Severe Sleep Disturbance_0 + 3.591 Severe Sleep Disturbance_1
+ 0.000000 Limits on Normal Activities_0 + 3.400 Limits on Normal Activities_1 - 0.0419 Number of Symptoms
Now*Number of Symptoms Now + 0.000000 Number of Symptoms Now*Severe Shortness of Breath_0 + 0.5118 Number
of Symptoms Now*Severe Shortness of Breath_1 + 0.000000 Number of Symptoms Now*Generally Feeling Very Bad_0
+ 0.5164 Number of Symptoms Now*Generally Feeling Very Bad_1 + 0.000000 Severe Shortness of Breath*Severe
Headache_0 0 + 0.000000 Severe Shortness of Breath*Severe Headache_0 1 + 0.000000 Severe Shortness of
Breath*Severe Headache_1 0 + 1.000 Severe Shortness of Breath*Severe Headache_1 1 + 0.000000 Severe Chest
Pain*Severe Sleep Disturbance_0 0 + 0.000000 Severe Chest Pain*Severe Sleep Disturbance_0 1
+ 0.000000 Severe Chest Pain*Severe Sleep Disturbance_1 0 + 1.741 Severe Chest Pain*Severe Sleep
Disturbance_1 1 + 0.000000 Severe Headache*Severe Sleep Disturbance_0 0 + 0.000000 Severe Headache*Severe
Sleep Disturbance_0 1 + 0.000000 Severe Headache*Severe Sleep Disturbance_1 0 - 0.881 Severe
Headache*Severe Sleep Disturbance_1 1 + 0.000000 Severe Sleep Disturbance*Limits on Normal Activities_0 0
+ 0.000000 Severe Sleep Disturbance*Limits on Normal Activities_0 1 + 0.000000 Severe Sleep
Disturbance*Limits on Normal Activities_1 0 + 1.146 Severe Sleep Disturbance*Limits on Normal Activities_1
1

Settings

Number of Symptoms Now = 1,High Production of Phlegm = 0,Severe Shortness of Breath = 0,Severe Chest Pain = 0,
Severe Headache = 0,Severe Sleep Disturbance = 0,Generally Feeling Very Bad = 0,Limits on Normal Activities = 0

Prediction

ObsFitSE Fit95% CI95% PI
13.287730.552218(2.20455, 4.37091)(-4.89294, 11.4684)

Settings

Number of Symptoms Now = 10,High Production of Phlegm = 1,Severe Shortness of Breath = 1,Severe Chest Pain = 1,
Severe Headache = 1,Severe Sleep Disturbance = 1,Generally Feeling Very Bad = 1,Limits on Normal Activities = 1

Prediction

ObsFitSE Fit95% CI95% PI
257.61590.419434(56.7931, 58.4386)(49.4656, 65.7661)

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