Example of Trend Analysis

A marketing analyst wants to assess trends in tennis racquet sales. The analyst collects sales data from the previous five years to predict the sales of the product for the next 3 months.

  1. Open the sample data, TennisRacquetSales.MTW.
  2. Choose Stat > Time Series > Trend Analysis.
  3. In Variable, enter Racquets.
  4. Under Model Type, select Quadratic.
  5. Select Generate forecasts. In Number of forecasts, enter 3.
  6. Click OK.

Interpret the results

The trend analysis plot shows a general upward trend. There is curvature and the model appears to fit the data well, which indicates a good fit. The analyst can be confident in the forecasts for the next 3 months.

Trend Analysis for Racquets

Method Model type Quadratic Trend Model Data Racquets Length 60 NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation Yt = 324.35 + 0.492×t + 0.04694×t^2
Accuracy Measures MAPE 2.474 MAD 9.462 MSD 135.701
Forecasts Period Forecast 61 528.984 62 535.249 63 541.608

Trend Analysis Plot for Racquets

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