Example of Moving Average

A toothpaste retailer collects sales data and the number of commercials that were broadcast during the previous 60 weeks. The retailer creates a time-series model for prediction of sales.

  1. Open the sample data, ToothpasteSales.MTW.
  2. Choose Stat > Time Series > Moving Average.
  3. In Variable, enter Sales.
  4. In MA length, enter 2.
  5. Select Generate forecasts. In Number of forecasts, enter 6.
  6. Click OK.

Interpret the results

On the moving average plot, the forecasts and line closely follow the data, especially at the end of the series. The retailer can be 95% confident that the sales will be between approximately 53 and 67 for the next 6 months.

Moving Average for Sales

Method Data Sales Length 101 NMissing 0
Moving Average Length 2
Accuracy Measures MAPE 8.8780 MAD 2.9242 MSD 13.8308
Forecasts Period Forecast Lower Upper 102 60 52.7109 67.2891 103 60 52.7109 67.2891 104 60 52.7109 67.2891 105 60 52.7109 67.2891 106 60 52.7109 67.2891 107 60 52.7109 67.2891

Moving Average Plot for Sales

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