Example of Single Exponential Smoothing

A toothpaste retailer collects sales data and the number of commercials that were broadcast during the previous 60 weeks. The retailer creates a time-series model for prediction of sales.

  1. Open the sample data, ToothpasteSales.MTW.
  2. Open the Single Exponential Smoothing dialog box.
    • Mac: Statistics > Time Series > Single Exponential Smoothing
    • PC: STATISTICS > Forecast > Single Exponential Smoothing
  3. In Y variable, enter Sales.
  4. In Weight to use in smoothing, enter 0.95.
  5. On the Forecast tab, select Number of forecasts to generate and enter 6.
  6. Click OK.

Interpret the results

On the smoothing plot, the forecasts and line closely follow the data, especially at the end of the series. The retailer can be 95% confident that the sales will be between approximately 52 and 65 for the next 6 months.

Method
Accuracy Measures
Forecasts
Period
Forecast
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