Example of Moving Average

A toothpaste retailer collects sales data and the number of commercials that were broadcast during the previous 60 weeks. The retailer creates a time-series model for prediction of sales.

  1. Open the sample data, ToothpasteSales.MTW.
  2. Open the Moving Average dialog box.
    • Mac: Statistics > Time Series > Moving Average
    • PC: STATISTICS > Forecast > Moving Average
  3. In Y variable, enter Sales.
  4. In MA length, enter 2.
  5. On the Forecast tab, select Number of forecasts to generate and enter 6.
  6. Click OK.

Interpret the results

On the moving average plot, the forecasts and line closely follow the data, especially at the end of the series. The retailer can be 95% confident that the sales will be between approximately 53 and 67 for the next 6 months.

Accuracy Measures
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